I love it when you call me Big Poppa "Big Poppa" - Notorious B.I.G.
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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24–7 on winners spread MAE 9.2 31 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Indiana @ Ohio State +5.2 137.4 68% 69–80 ✓
Liberty @ Central Arkansas -13.2 151.6 11% 85–66 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lafayette +6.6 135.2 73% 61–84 ✓
UTEP @ Middle Tennessee +6.7 136.6 73% 59–77 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Syracuse +11.0 149.3 84% 73–74 ✓
Florida State @ Boston College -1.7 136.0 44% 55–71 ✗
Coppin State @ Howard +10.4 152.1 83% 86–82 ✗
Louisville @ North Carolina +10.4 147.5 83% 63–70 ✓
Penn State @ Maryland +1.8 128.3 57% 61–67 ✓
Norfolk State @ Morgan State -8.5 144.9 22% 74–85 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Florida A&M +5.6 122.8 69% 71–63 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina Central +5.0 134.2 68% 79–66 ✗
Delaware State @ South Carolina State +13.5 138.0 89% 74–79 ✓
West Virginia @ TCU +3.6 128.8 63% 67–77 ✓
Marshall @ Southern Miss -6.3 152.4 28% 74–60 ✓
The Citadel @ Samford +6.3 160.6 72% 74–76 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville +13.0 124.5 88% 52–66 ✓
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado +14.5 144.4 91% 70–77 ✓
Indiana State @ Drake +12.5 145.6 87% 58–74 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Illinois State -9.3 148.7 20% 59–50 ✓
Southern Utah @ Northern Arizona -6.6 147.3 27% 79–48 ✓
Evansville @ Valparaiso +10.8 128.8 84% 69–74 ✓
Texas Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -12.4 136.6 13% 70–68 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi Valley State -9.3 162.7 20% 69–64 ✓
Baylor @ Oklahoma State -6.9 140.1 27% 66–64 ✓
Arizona State @ UCLA +16.8 136.4 94% 52–66 ✓
Alabama State @ Bethune-Cookman +0.1 135.9 50% 89–78 ✗
San Francisco @ Pacific -15.3 133.9 8% 104–71 ✓
New Mexico State @ Seattle U +0.2 141.4 51% 68–55 ✗
St. Thomas @ North Dakota -1.7 151.1 44% 84–74 ✓
Yale @ Dartmouth -2.2 132.4 42% 66–61 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.