Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
| Money | MTSU -210 UTEP +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +18 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -6.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -5.2 (+12.8) | 139.2 (-3.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -7.4 (+10.6) | 140.0 (-4.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -7.1 (+10.9) | 141.4 (-5.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -7.0 (+11.0) | 141.1 (-5.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MTSU 77 – 67 UTEP |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UTEP 83 – 80 MTSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTSU 76 – 75 UTEP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MTSU 71 – 68 UTEP |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MTSU 96 – 90 UTEP |
Game Analysis
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