Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | NAU +230 SUU -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +31 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | SUU -6.3 (-24.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -5.3 (-25.7) | 148.3 (-21.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -7.5 (-23.5) | 145.3 (-18.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -5.2 (-25.8) | 147.8 (-20.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -5.2 (-25.8) | 149.4 (-22.4) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | NAU 65 – 57 SUU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | NAU 83 – 75 SUU |
| Dec 16, 2023 | NAU 76 – 74 SUU |
| Dec 17, 2022 | SUU 106 – 101 NAU |
| Feb 1, 2022 | SUU 78 – 66 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 14-6 |
| Home | 5-10 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#319) | -1.0 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#303) | 0.04 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#304) | -0.02 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#287) | 0.514 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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