Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Big Sky Conference · J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · February 22, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread SUU -6.5 Away covered
O/U 146.0 Under
Money NAU +230 / SUU -280
Model Predictions
Spread Total NAU win
Actual SUU +31 127 Lost
Massey SUU -6.3 (-24.7)
Massey Totals 147.2 (-20.2)
Bradley-Terry 23%
Weighted B-T 19%
Efficiency Plus ML SUU -7.5 (-23.5) 145.3 (-18.3) 25%
Baseline Tuned ML SUU -5.2 (-25.8) 147.8 (-20.8) 29%
Baseline ML SUU -5.2 (-25.8) 149.4 (-22.4) 30%
Baseline Plus ML SUU -5.3 (-25.7) 148.3 (-21.3) 27%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 19, 2025 NAU 6557 SUU
Dec 21, 2024 NAU 8375 SUU
Dec 16, 2023 NAU 7674 SUU
Dec 17, 2022 SUU 106101 NAU
Feb 1, 2022 SUU 7866 NAU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NAU SUU
Overall 9-23 23-12
Conference 5-15 14-6
Home 5-10 13-3
Away 3-11 8-8
Neutral 1-2 2-1
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L8 L1
Avg Pts For 65.4 75.9
Avg Pts Against 74.8 72.8
Massey -10.2 (#319) -1.0 (#188)
Bradley-Terry -1.64 (#303) 0.04 (#173)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.03 (#304) -0.02 (#178)
RPI 0.442 (#287) 0.514 (#152)
Shooting & Four Factors NAU SUU
FG% 40.9% 45.5%
3PT% 35.2% 33.6%
REB / G 36.5 36.5
OREB / G 10.5 9.6
AST / TO 0.85 0.89
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.3% 52.3%
TOV% 20.9% 17.4%
ORB% 28.8% 27.1%
FT Rate 20.2% 25.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.6% 51.8%
Opp TOV% 14.0% 17.6%
DRB% 76.7% 76.4%
Opp FT Rate 25.4% 20.2%

Game Analysis

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