Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | NAU -258 SUU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +8 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | NAU -13.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-25.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -10.5 (-2.5) | 141.0 (-19.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -9.1 (-1.1) | 142.5 (-20.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -10.0 (-2.0) | 140.8 (-18.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -10.8 (-2.8) | 140.4 (-18.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | NAU 83 – 75 SUU |
| Dec 16, 2023 | NAU 76 – 74 SUU |
| Dec 17, 2022 | SUU 106 – 101 NAU |
| Feb 22, 2022 | SUU 79 – 48 NAU |
| Feb 1, 2022 | SUU 78 – 66 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 7-6 |
| Away | 1-13 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 81.3 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#247) | -14.1 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#294) | -1.93 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#279) | -2.72 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#301) | 0.399 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 59.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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