Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -12.0 Push |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | SUU -13.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -10.4 (+1.6) | 151.2 (-7.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -11.6 (+0.4) | 148.0 (-4.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -10.5 (+1.5) | 151.7 (-7.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -10.7 (+1.3) | 153.1 (-9.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | NAU 65 – 57 SUU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | NAU 83 – 75 SUU |
| Dec 16, 2023 | NAU 76 – 74 SUU |
| Dec 17, 2022 | SUU 106 – 101 NAU |
| Feb 22, 2022 | SUU 79 – 48 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 5-15 |
| Home | 13-3 | 5-10 |
| Away | 8-8 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#199) | -11.2 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#158) | -2.00 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#161) | -2.49 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#163) | 0.421 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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