Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | SUU -210 NAU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +8 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | SUU -7.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -5.7 (-13.7) | 145.3 (+12.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -4.6 (-12.6) | 144.7 (+13.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -4.7 (-12.7) | 146.0 (+12.0) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -5.2 (-13.2) | 146.2 (+11.8) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | NAU 65 – 57 SUU |
| Dec 16, 2023 | NAU 76 – 74 SUU |
| Dec 17, 2022 | SUU 106 – 101 NAU |
| Feb 22, 2022 | SUU 79 – 48 NAU |
| Feb 1, 2022 | SUU 78 – 66 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-11 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#217) | -6.0 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#188) | -0.77 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#178) | -1.45 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#191) | 0.455 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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