Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | NAU -150 SUU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +2 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | NAU -1.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -3.3 (-1.3) | 146.5 (+3.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -1.4 (+0.6) | 143.9 (+6.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -3.9 (-1.9) | 145.7 (+4.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -4.3 (-2.3) | 146.9 (+3.1) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | NAU 65 – 57 SUU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | NAU 83 – 75 SUU |
| Dec 17, 2022 | SUU 106 – 101 NAU |
| Feb 22, 2022 | SUU 79 – 48 NAU |
| Feb 1, 2022 | SUU 78 – 66 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-15 |
| Home | 7-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#249) | -0.7 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#97) | -0.96 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#129) | -0.98 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#108) | 0.456 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.2% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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