Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.0 Over |
| Money | VAL -420 EVAN +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +5 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -10.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -7.9 (-2.9) | 132.2 (+10.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -9.3 (-4.3) | 133.5 (+9.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -8.6 (-3.6) | 134.1 (+8.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -8.6 (-3.6) | 134.0 (+9.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | EVAN 80 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VAL 70 – 63 EVAN |
| Feb 17, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 69 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 68 VAL |
| Feb 3, 2024 | EVAN 63 – 62 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 6-24 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 2-16 |
| Home | 8-8 | 4-9 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 58.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#190) | -9.1 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#231) | -1.93 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#217) | -1.99 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#240) | 0.416 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 5.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 15.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 78.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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