Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
| Money | MORG +200 NORF -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +11 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -8.7 (+19.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -6.0 (+17.0) | 145.3 (+13.7) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -7.9 (+18.9) | 144.9 (+14.1) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -7.3 (+18.3) | 145.9 (+13.1) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -7.8 (+18.8) | 146.9 (+12.1) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | MORG 90 – 84 NORF |
| Jan 27, 2026 | MORG 79 – 78 NORF |
| Mar 14, 2025 | NORF 58 – 55 MORG |
| Feb 25, 2025 | NORF 69 – 60 MORG |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MORG 78 – 74 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-15 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 12-2 |
| Home | 8-3 | 11-0 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 66.6 |
| Massey | -12.2 (#336) | -0.6 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.30 (#338) | 0.37 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.74 (#335) | 0.44 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#336) | 0.518 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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