Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.0 Under |
| Money | SAM -320 CIT +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +2 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -5.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -4.6 (-2.6) | 161.3 (-11.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -5.6 (-3.6) | 157.9 (-7.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -5.4 (-3.4) | 159.9 (-9.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -5.4 (-3.4) | 159.7 (-9.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | SAM 78 – 75 CIT |
| Feb 6, 2026 | SAM 78 – 64 CIT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SAM 83 – 58 CIT |
| Jan 2, 2025 | SAM 86 – 56 CIT |
| Mar 2, 2024 | SAM 92 – 80 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#204) | -4.9 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#123) | -0.65 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#145) | -0.91 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#133) | 0.471 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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