Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UND -125 STMN +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +10 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | STMN -2.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -1.9 (-8.1) | 145.7 (+12.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -1.2 (-8.8) | 149.4 (+8.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -0.9 (-9.1) | 152.2 (+5.8) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -1.7 (-8.3) | 150.5 (+7.5) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UND 67 – 66 STMN |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UND 81 – 80 STMN |
| Jan 16, 2026 | STMN 91 – 80 UND |
| Mar 9, 2025 | STMN 85 – 69 UND |
| Feb 28, 2025 | STMN 86 – 71 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 4-14 |
| Home | 4-11 | 5-8 |
| Away | 1-13 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -13.3 (#347) | -8.6 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.62 (#345) | -1.92 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.38 (#348) | -2.02 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.376 (#349) | 0.416 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 20.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 58.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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