Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU -270 UMES +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +13 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -4.3 (-17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -3.1 (-16.1) | 137.6 (+7.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -4.1 (-17.1) | 136.8 (+8.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -4.2 (-17.2) | 138.3 (+6.7) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -3.5 (-16.5) | 139.7 (+5.3) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | NCCU 83 – 76 UMES |
| Mar 3, 2026 | NCCU 77 – 73 UMES |
| Feb 2, 2026 | NCCU 65 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UMES 68 – 59 NCCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NCCU 88 – 69 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 6-8 |
| Home | 9-2 | 6-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 62.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#275) | -8.0 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#250) | -1.76 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#275) | -2.52 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#210) | 0.432 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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