Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | LAF -240 HC +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +23 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -6.6 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -5.1 (+17.9) | 137.5 (+7.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -4.0 (+19.0) | 137.0 (+8.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -4.0 (+19.0) | 137.9 (+7.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -4.3 (+18.7) | 138.5 (+6.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | HC 82 – 77 LAF |
| Feb 18, 2026 | LAF 86 – 83 HC |
| Jan 17, 2026 | LAF 74 – 55 HC |
| Mar 5, 2025 | LAF 69 – 68 HC |
| Feb 19, 2025 | HC 74 – 69 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-9 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#313) | -13.2 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#310) | -2.02 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#314) | -2.65 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#296) | 0.403 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 14.5% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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