Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
| Money | MD -145 PSU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +6 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | MD -2.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -1.5 (+4.5) | 132.9 (-4.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -1.9 (+4.1) | 133.1 (-5.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -1.6 (+4.4) | 134.3 (-6.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -1.4 (+4.6) | 131.6 (-3.6) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | MD 96 – 73 PSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MD 68 – 64 PSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PSU 85 – 69 MD |
| Dec 7, 2023 | MD 81 – 75 PSU |
| Mar 5, 2023 | PSU 65 – 64 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-8 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 65.0 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#90) | 7.4 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#102) | 1.30 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#92) | 1.68 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#122) | 0.542 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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