Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | USU -700 UNM +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +25 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | USU -11.2 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -15.1 (+9.9) | 152.1 (-15.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -11.0 (+14.0) | 155.1 (-18.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -10.5 (+14.5) | 154.5 (-17.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -10.0 (+15.0) | 153.8 (-16.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | USU 94 – 90 UNM |
| Feb 5, 2026 | USU 86 – 66 UNM |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNM 82 – 79 USU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UNM 82 – 63 USU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | USU 87 – 85 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#57) | 0.8 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#89) | 0.21 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#67) | 0.31 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#71) | 0.511 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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