Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +21 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -13.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -11.9 (+9.1) | 141.1 (+1.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -12.5 (+8.5) | 144.0 (-1.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -13.0 (+8.0) | 143.6 (-0.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -12.8 (+8.2) | 141.4 (+1.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2025 | MASS 76 – 72 DAY |
| Jan 7, 2024 | DAY 64 – 60 MASS |
| Feb 23, 2023 | DAY 72 – 54 MASS |
| Mar 11, 2022 | DAY 75 – 72 MASS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.2 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#49) | -1.0 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#70) | -0.05 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#64) | -0.11 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#63) | 0.495 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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