Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +6 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | DRKE -5.7 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -5.2 (-0.8) | 141.0 (-5.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -3.8 (-2.2) | 142.6 (-6.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -3.9 (-2.1) | 142.8 (-6.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -4.5 (-1.5) | 143.8 (-7.8) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | VAL 74 – 71 DRKE |
| Feb 10, 2026 | VAL 81 – 76 DRKE |
| Jan 23, 2025 | DRKE 81 – 71 VAL |
| Dec 6, 2024 | DRKE 66 – 60 VAL |
| Feb 1, 2024 | DRKE 81 – 70 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-6 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#193) | 7.0 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#227) | 0.78 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#212) | 0.93 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#236) | 0.529 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 19.9% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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