Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +7 | 191 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -0.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (+53.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -3.2 (+3.8) | 140.5 (+50.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -3.8 (+3.2) | 142.8 (+48.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -3.3 (+3.7) | 144.6 (+46.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -2.6 (+4.4) | 143.6 (+47.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | PROV 94 – 84 XAV |
| Jan 10, 2026 | XAV 97 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | XAV 76 – 68 PROV |
| Feb 13, 2025 | XAV 91 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 22, 2024 | PROV 79 – 75 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 8-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 16-5 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#48) | 12.4 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.62 (#3) | 2.32 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.79 (#12) | 2.81 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#8) | 0.590 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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