Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +6 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -5.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (-23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -4.1 (+1.9) | 135.6 (-23.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -4.9 (+1.1) | 136.5 (-24.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -4.7 (+1.3) | 136.3 (-24.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -5.1 (+0.9) | 135.8 (-23.8) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2022 | UTA 62 – 57 TROY |
| Mar 6, 2021 | TROY 91 – 86 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 7-10 |
| Home | 10-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#185) | -3.7 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#127) | -0.35 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#127) | -0.24 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#145) | 0.478 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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