Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UTA -275 TROY +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +5 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | UTA -4.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (+45.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -3.0 (-8.0) | 133.2 (+43.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -3.5 (-8.5) | 132.1 (+44.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -3.5 (-8.5) | 131.9 (+45.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -3.0 (-8.0) | 134.4 (+42.6) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2022 | TROY 59 – 53 UTA |
| Jan 1, 2022 | UTA 62 – 57 TROY |
Game Analysis
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