Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +5 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -1.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -0.3 (+4.7) | 137.6 (-18.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -1.0 (+4.0) | 135.6 (-16.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -0.5 (+4.5) | 135.9 (-16.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -0.1 (+5.1) | 136.3 (-17.3) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2022 | TROY 59 – 53 UTA |
| Mar 6, 2021 | TROY 91 – 86 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 10-6 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#259) | -1.8 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#199) | 0.49 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#203) | 0.90 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#182) | 0.478 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 24.1% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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