Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +8 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -6.4 (+14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -4.5 (+12.5) | 152.0 (+6.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -3.3 (+11.3) | 150.8 (+7.2) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -3.3 (+11.3) | 151.6 (+6.4) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -3.3 (+11.3) | 151.4 (+6.6) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FUR 86 – 81 SAM |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FUR 78 – 73 SAM |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FUR 77 – 73 SAM |
| Mar 9, 2025 | FUR 95 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FUR 80 – 72 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#206) | 7.2 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#122) | 0.94 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#142) | 1.19 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#122) | 0.558 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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