Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +16 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | BU -9.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -8.1 (+7.9) | 141.6 (-5.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -9.0 (+7.0) | 144.7 (-8.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -9.0 (+7.0) | 144.9 (-8.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -9.3 (+6.7) | 144.9 (-8.9) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | BU 77 – 73 LAF |
| Jan 8, 2026 | BU 83 – 67 LAF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BU 66 – 64 LAF |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LAF 60 – 46 BU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BU 62 – 48 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-9 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#205) | -8.9 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#204) | -1.70 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#208) | -2.06 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#194) | 0.441 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 14.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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