Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +21 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -5.6 (+15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -5.2 (+15.8) | 131.7 (+27.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -5.4 (+15.6) | 133.1 (+25.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -6.1 (+14.9) | 135.7 (+23.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -5.5 (+15.5) | 134.7 (+24.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | SIU 54 – 50 ILST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | ILST 75 – 68 SIU |
| Feb 26, 2025 | SIU 88 – 79 ILST |
| Jan 5, 2025 | ILST 85 – 54 SIU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | SIU 69 – 66 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.6 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#129) | -0.4 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#187) | -1.03 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#175) | -0.93 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#211) | 0.443 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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