Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIT +4 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -5.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -6.1 (-10.1) | 153.3 (-15.3) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -5.6 (-9.6) | 150.4 (-12.4) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -5.4 (-9.4) | 150.8 (-12.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -5.6 (-9.6) | 152.1 (-14.1) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MER 70 – 54 CIT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MER 101 – 63 CIT |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MER 62 – 52 CIT |
| Jan 30, 2025 | MER 80 – 46 CIT |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MER 84 – 76 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#203) | -4.8 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#152) | -0.68 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#160) | -0.93 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#146) | 0.469 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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