Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +4 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -8.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -3.1 (-0.9) | 124.1 (+1.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -5.4 (+1.4) | 131.0 (-5.0) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -4.9 (+0.9) | 130.6 (-4.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -4.7 (+0.7) | 123.0 (+3.0) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | DUKE 74 – 70 UVA |
| Feb 28, 2026 | DUKE 77 – 51 UVA |
| Feb 18, 2025 | DUKE 80 – 62 UVA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | DUKE 73 – 48 UVA |
| Mar 12, 2023 | DUKE 59 – 49 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 16-4 |
| Home | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#84) | 17.9 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#69) | 2.98 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#78) | 4.40 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#72) | 0.621 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 12.3% |
Game Analysis
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