Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +13 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -15.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -12.9 (+0.1) | 146.4 (-5.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -14.0 (-1.0) | 148.5 (-7.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -14.7 (-1.7) | 149.4 (-8.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -14.5 (-1.5) | 149.0 (-8.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MISS 85 – 79 AUB |
| Jan 21, 2026 | AUB 78 – 66 MISS |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AUB 62 – 57 MISS |
| Feb 27, 2025 | AUB 106 – 76 MISS |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AUB 92 – 82 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 16-0 | 10-8 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 18.3 (#7) | 5.3 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#5) | 0.83 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.50 (#4) | 1.11 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.655 (#2) | 0.512 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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