Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -10.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -10.4 (-1.4) | 135.2 (+1.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -9.2 (-0.2) | 134.2 (+2.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -9.9 (-0.9) | 135.6 (+1.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -9.5 (-0.5) | 137.0 (+0.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WCU 91 – 77 UNCG |
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCG 81 – 78 WCU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCG 74 – 70 WCU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCG 83 – 55 WCU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | UNCG 71 – 65 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#173) | -8.1 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#138) | -0.76 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#151) | -1.01 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#148) | 0.449 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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