Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +6 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -6.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -3.6 (+2.4) | 139.2 (-25.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -5.4 (+0.6) | 137.9 (-23.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -5.2 (+0.8) | 138.9 (-24.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -5.9 (+0.1) | 139.5 (-25.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | LAS 87 – 84 FOR |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FOR 64 – 58 LAS |
| Jan 30, 2025 | FOR 88 – 72 LAS |
| Jan 6, 2024 | LAS 81 – 76 FOR |
| Mar 10, 2023 | FOR 69 – 61 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#170) | -4.3 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#189) | -1.19 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#180) | -1.48 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#191) | 0.436 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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