Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +6 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | UNI -5.2 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -3.7 (-2.3) | 145.5 (+24.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -3.9 (-2.1) | 145.9 (+24.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -4.2 (-1.8) | 145.0 (+25.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -4.7 (-1.3) | 145.3 (+24.7) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UNI 81 – 60 INST |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UNI 75 – 66 INST |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNI 88 – 73 INST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNI 74 – 56 INST |
| Mar 9, 2024 | INST 94 – 72 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-11 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#215) | 5.6 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#251) | 0.65 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#251) | 0.88 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#254) | 0.560 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 17.1% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 79.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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