Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +6 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -6.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -6.5 (-0.5) | 131.4 (+6.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -7.4 (-1.4) | 132.4 (+5.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -7.2 (-1.2) | 133.3 (+4.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -6.3 (-0.3) | 132.8 (+5.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | VCU 70 – 65 GMU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | GMU 86 – 80 VCU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | VCU 68 – 63 GMU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VCU 70 – 54 GMU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | VCU 54 – 50 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.4 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#66) | 4.6 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#47) | 0.41 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#60) | 0.58 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#38) | 0.520 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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