Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -21.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -4500 EVAN +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +51 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -23.4 (+27.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -20.2 (+30.8) | 128.6 (-15.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -19.6 (+31.4) | 133.3 (-20.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -20.4 (+30.6) | 134.1 (-21.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -20.6 (+30.4) | 133.9 (-20.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2022 | LUC 77 – 48 EVAN |
| Feb 7, 2021 | LUC 69 – 58 EVAN |
| Feb 6, 2021 | LUC 68 – 55 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 6-24 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 2-16 |
| Home | 12-2 | 4-9 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 58.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#28) | -8.9 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#55) | -1.99 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#58) | -2.04 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#57) | 0.415 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 14.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 78.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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