Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 120.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -3300 EVAN +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +11 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -22.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -16.0 (-5.0) | 125.1 (+1.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -18.5 (-7.5) | 127.7 (-0.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -20.4 (-9.4) | 128.0 (-1.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -19.1 (-8.1) | 127.8 (-0.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2022 | LUC 82 – 31 EVAN |
| Jan 19, 2022 | LUC 77 – 48 EVAN |
| Feb 6, 2021 | LUC 68 – 55 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-5 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-0 | 8-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.4 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#12) | -4.7 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#40) | -0.74 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#37) | -1.01 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#51) | 0.465 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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