Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +2 | 102 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -8.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -8.2 (-6.2) | 121.5 (-19.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -7.1 (-5.1) | 128.3 (-26.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -7.0 (-5.0) | 126.4 (-24.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -7.3 (-5.3) | 127.1 (-25.1) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NAVY 78 – 51 L-MD |
| Jan 31, 2026 | NAVY 87 – 71 L-MD |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 68 L-MD |
| Jan 11, 2025 | L-MD 75 – 74 NAVY |
| Mar 6, 2024 | NAVY 64 – 48 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-3 |
| Away | 11-5 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.8 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#162) | -5.4 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#176) | -1.17 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#163) | -1.44 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#155) | 0.455 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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