Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +6 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -5.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -3.1 (-2.9) | 135.5 (+24.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -3.1 (-2.9) | 137.7 (+22.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -3.4 (-2.6) | 138.5 (+21.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -3.9 (-2.1) | 139.4 (+20.6) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | ETSU 73 – 61 UTC |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ETSU 67 – 66 UTC |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UTC 78 – 71 ETSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTC 71 – 63 ETSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ETSU 85 – 84 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 65.4 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#183) | 7.0 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#164) | 1.49 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#166) | 1.60 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#144) | 0.594 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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