Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +4 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -6.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -4.7 (-0.7) | 130.9 (-6.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -5.3 (-1.3) | 130.6 (-6.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -5.2 (-1.2) | 131.9 (-7.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -5.5 (-1.5) | 132.7 (-8.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | USF 82 – 71 ECU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ECU 64 – 55 USF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | USF 75 – 69 ECU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | USF 81 – 59 ECU |
| Feb 1, 2024 | USF 71 – 60 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 6-11 | 3-15 |
| Home | 12-4 | 6-10 |
| Away | 2-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 57.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#176) | -4.2 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#153) | -1.00 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#159) | -1.06 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#199) | 0.441 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 25.3% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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