Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +3 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -4.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (-26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -2.7 (-5.7) | 130.6 (-23.6) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -3.6 (-6.6) | 136.3 (-29.3) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -4.2 (-7.2) | 137.0 (-30.0) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -3.6 (-6.6) | 134.5 (-27.5) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TXST 90 – 82 USA |
| Dec 20, 2025 | TXST 67 – 65 USA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TXST 93 – 92 USA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | USA 70 – 65 TXST |
| Feb 16, 2024 | USA 72 – 55 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 21-8 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 12-3 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#127) | 1.2 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#129) | 1.01 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#125) | 0.97 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#104) | 0.547 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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