Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | ND -3.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -3.7 (+6.3) | 146.6 (+1.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -4.8 (+5.2) | 148.4 (-0.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -4.3 (+5.7) | 148.6 (-0.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -4.0 (+6.0) | 147.3 (+0.7) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | SYR 86 – 72 ND |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SYR 77 – 69 ND |
| Dec 7, 2024 | ND 69 – 64 SYR |
| Feb 24, 2024 | SYR 88 – 85 ND |
| Jan 15, 2023 | SYR 78 – 73 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#67) | 7.9 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#49) | 0.97 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#53) | 1.21 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#44) | 0.538 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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