Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ND -230 SYR +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | ND -10.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (-27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -6.1 (-1.1) | 148.9 (-15.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -6.6 (-1.6) | 150.3 (-17.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -6.0 (-1.0) | 149.9 (-16.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -7.2 (-2.2) | 151.1 (-18.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | SYR 86 – 72 ND |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SYR 77 – 69 ND |
| Feb 24, 2024 | SYR 88 – 85 ND |
| Jan 15, 2023 | SYR 78 – 73 ND |
| Dec 3, 2022 | SYR 62 – 61 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 77.8 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#82) | 0.4 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#186) | 0.15 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#134) | 0.28 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#156) | 0.534 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 79.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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