Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +12 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -8.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -8.1 (-3.9) | 132.5 (+11.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -7.7 (-4.3) | 134.3 (+9.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -7.8 (-4.2) | 134.9 (+9.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -8.1 (-3.9) | 133.5 (+10.5) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2022 | APP 72 – 57 LR |
| Mar 6, 2021 | APP 67 – 60 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-19 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-7 | 11-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#326) | -0.0 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#265) | 0.46 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#274) | 0.51 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#284) | 0.544 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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