Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | APP -120 LR +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +7 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | LR -1.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -1.0 (+8.0) | 130.7 (-3.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -0.5 (+7.5) | 134.1 (-7.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LR -0.6 (+7.6) | 134.3 (-7.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -0.1 (+7.1) | 133.6 (-6.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2022 | APP 78 – 66 LR |
| Jan 29, 2022 | APP 72 – 57 LR |
Game Analysis
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