Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +15 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | APP -12.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -9.8 (+5.2) | 136.4 (-7.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -10.2 (+4.8) | 135.8 (-6.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -10.6 (+4.4) | 137.5 (-8.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -10.7 (+4.3) | 134.8 (-5.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2022 | APP 78 – 66 LR |
| Mar 6, 2021 | APP 67 – 60 LR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 9-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 3-11 |
| Home | 11-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#165) | -9.3 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#117) | -0.87 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#116) | -1.19 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#81) | 0.443 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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