Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +20 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | NCAT -2.0 (-22.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -1.5 (-21.5) | 135.2 (+0.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -2.3 (-22.3) | 137.0 (-1.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -2.2 (-22.2) | 137.5 (-1.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -1.4 (-21.4) | 137.2 (-1.2) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | HPU 75 – 62 NCAT |
| Jan 16, 2022 | HPU 78 – 71 NCAT |
Game Analysis
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