Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -8000 NCAT +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +13 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -27.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.4 (-38.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -19.3 (-6.3) | 152.5 (-15.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -21.4 (-8.4) | 156.9 (-19.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -23.8 (-10.8) | 159.5 (-22.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -22.6 (-9.6) | 158.9 (-21.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2022 | HPU 78 – 58 NCAT |
| Jan 16, 2022 | HPU 78 – 71 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 4-7 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.1 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#89) | -16.2 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#110) | -3.21 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#95) | -5.10 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#133) | 0.396 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 18.4% |
| FT Rate | 37.0% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 61.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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