I have got the sharpest knife, so I get the biggest slice. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
Liberty Arena (VA) · February 24, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread LIB -9.0 Away covered
O/U 145.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total LIB win
Actual FGCU +10 154 Lost
Massey LIB -9.0 (-19.0) — —
Massey Totals — 148.7 (+5.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 77% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 83% ✗
Baseline Plus ML LIB -8.8 (-18.8) 148.9 (+5.1) 75% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LIB -10.5 (-20.5) 147.5 (+6.5) 80% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML LIB -8.6 (-18.6) 150.7 (+3.3) 80% ✗
Baseline ML LIB -8.5 (-18.5) 152.8 (+1.2) 77% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 29, 2023 LIB 74 – 57 FGCU
Jan 16, 2022 LIB 78 – 75 FGCU

Game Analysis

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