Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +14 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -1.3 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.7 (+11.3) | 140.5 (-4.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -2.4 (+11.6) | 141.7 (-5.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -1.8 (+12.2) | 142.0 (-6.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -2.3 (+11.7) | 142.8 (-6.8) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | UCF 66 – 65 CIN |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CIN 92 – 72 UCF |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCF 73 – 72 CIN |
| Apr 3, 2025 | UCF 88 – 80 CIN |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CIN 93 – 83 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#98) | 6.9 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#82) | 0.87 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#76) | 1.27 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#103) | 0.525 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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