Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +4 | 208 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -3.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.6 (+40.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -1.2 (-2.8) | 161.8 (+46.2) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -3.4 (-0.6) | 163.9 (+44.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -2.9 (-1.1) | 168.2 (+39.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -1.6 (-2.4) | 166.0 (+42.0) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SDST 87 – 69 ORU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | SDST 95 – 72 ORU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | SDST 77 – 69 ORU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SDST 84 – 70 ORU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | SDST 79 – 63 ORU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 18-0 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-0 |
| Away | 8-6 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#140) | 8.0 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#155) | 1.80 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#143) | 1.89 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#133) | 0.597 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 52.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 44.3% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 60.2% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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