Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | IU -6.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -5.9 (+4.1) | 138.6 (-0.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -6.1 (+3.9) | 138.8 (-0.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -6.0 (+4.0) | 139.8 (-1.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -5.5 (+4.5) | 140.3 (-2.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | IU 84 – 66 MD |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MD 79 – 78 IU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | IU 83 – 78 MD |
| Dec 2, 2023 | IU 65 – 53 MD |
| Mar 11, 2023 | IU 70 – 60 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#41) | 6.8 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#53) | 1.08 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#53) | 1.48 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#77) | 0.533 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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