Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +16 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | CCSU -0.4 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -0.5 (-15.5) | 137.1 (+4.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -0.9 (-16.9) | 136.5 (+5.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -0.3 (-16.3) | 136.4 (+5.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -0.1 (-15.9) | 137.4 (+4.6) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CCSU 69 – 64 SFPA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CCSU 98 – 90 SFPA |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SFPA 46 – 43 CCSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | CCSU 83 – 67 SFPA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | CCSU 74 – 59 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCSU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-7 | 4-8 |
| Away | 4-15 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -13.3 (#344) | -10.9 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#336) | -2.45 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#339) | -2.72 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#332) | 0.401 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCSU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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