Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +6 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | DREX -6.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -6.0 (-12.0) | 143.1 (-11.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -5.0 (-11.0) | 143.5 (-11.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -5.2 (-11.2) | 143.9 (-11.9) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -5.0 (-11.0) | 143.9 (-11.9) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2026 | UNCW 65 – 53 DREX |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCW 81 – 79 DREX |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UNCW 75 – 56 DREX |
| Jan 5, 2024 | DREX 78 – 63 UNCW |
| Mar 5, 2023 | UNCW 73 – 68 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-14 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-7 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#142) | -2.4 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#153) | 0.56 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#157) | 0.16 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#156) | 0.521 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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